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31

2022

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10

China Pig Analysis

Source:

OIG+X

Recently, the number of live hogs sold is greater than the slaughter amount, indicating that some pigs have been purchased for secondary and multiple fattening. This can be supported by the fact that the feed for large pigs in Sept is higher than that of last year and the weight of recently slaughtered pigs is approaching a 6-year high.

Recently, the number of live hogs sold is greater than the slaughter amount, indicating that some pigs have been purchased for secondary and multiple fattening. This can be supported by the fact that the feed for large pigs in Sept is higher than that of last year and the weight of recently slaughtered pigs is approaching a 6-year high. Our logic is that the consumption is poor, the slaughter volume remains at a low level, and the consumer side has little impact on the pig price. The future trend of pig price depends on supply. Although there is a shortage of live pigs, the actual supply may not be very short for the current low consumption. It is very likely that the overall supply has exceeded the demand. The price of pigs is related to the willingness of the breeding end to sell. The price of pigs falls when the selling is too much. The price of pigs rises when there is the selling volume is limited.

 

Whether to sell or not depends on whether the future pig price will raise. As the curing season approaches, there is enough power to keep selling the pigs. Now the market still faces poor consumption with more than one month away Winter Solstice. For pigs to be sold in the short term, it is urgent to pay attention to the changes in pig prices. A loss of confidence may stimulate the future sale. Therefore, during the period before the middle of Nov, the probability of pig price falling is high. Later, as the winter solstice approaches, it is expected that consumption will increase, more people will keep the pigs and reluctant to sell, and the pig price may increase. But in the end, whether it is up or down, it is due to total supply and demand. From the feed side data, it is very likely that supply has exceeded demand now.