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30

2022

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08

Beef Quarterly Q3 2022: Leaning Into the Trimmings Trade

Source:

Rabobank

The global beef market remains strong. Most beef retail prices (in domestic currencies) continued their upward trend in Q2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not rise much above Q1, most are sitting between 5% and 11% higher than Q2 2021.

 

The global beef market remains strong. Most beef retail prices (in domestic currencies) continued their upward trend in Q2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not rise much above Q1, most are sitting between 5% and 11% higher than Q2 2021.

 

Meanwhile, evidence of declining consumer confidence in the face of slowing economies and rising inflation is building. In general, beef markets are resilient to changes in economic conditions. However, we see movement within supply channels and price points that tend to favor cheaper options, such as ground beef and quick-service restaurants, over more expensive cuts and consumption channels.

 

With economic conditions slowing, we expect consumers to favor lower-priced beef cuts in 2H 2022, which is positive for trimmings demand. If the US cow kill slows, there is pricing upside potential for lean trimmings. New Zealand and Australia are best positioned to take advantage of increasing exports to the US, with Brazil already having filled the 2022 quota.