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12

2022

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10

Will The Recent Avian Influenza in Europe and US Affect the Breeding Poultry Imports?

Source:

OIG+X

Recently, a large-scale HPAI outbreak occurred in Europe. At the same time, since this year, avian influenza in the US has continued to rage. As Europe and the Americas are the main sources of China poultry imports and breeding birds, this wave of avian influenza epidemic will have an impact on China: in the short term, it will impact the poultry trade, resulting in a tight supply of poultry; in the medium and long term, if the epidemic continues, it may cause the global breeding poultry trade to be blocked, or even interrupted, leading to a decline in global livestock and poultry production capacity and a sharp rise in prices.

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Recently, a large-scale HPAI outbreak occurred in Europe. At the same time, since this year, avian influenza in the US has continued to rage. As Europe and the Americas are the main sources of China poultry imports and breeding birds, this wave of avian influenza epidemic will have an impact on China: in the short term, it will impact the poultry trade, resulting in a tight supply of poultry; in the medium and long term, if the epidemic continues, it may cause the global breeding poultry trade to be blocked, or even interrupted, leading to a decline in global livestock and poultry production capacity and a sharp rise in prices.

 

Poultry is cultivated all over the world, mainly in Asia countries like China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc., Europe, and American countries like Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, etc. China has always imported poultry meat and poultry by-products from the world. Among them, chicken products are mainly imported from South America. Although the amount of poultry meat imported from Europe is low, China still import a certain amount of poultry by-products every year. Frozen chicken feet, frozen chicken cuts with bone and frozen chicken wings are the main imported products.

 

According to customs data, China imported 1.48 million tons of poultry meat in 2021. It mainly comes from Brazil (650,000 tons) and the US (440,000 tons).

 

Due to the high level of poultry breeding in Europe and the US, the world mainly introduces provenance from Europe and the US. For example, white feather broilers, which account for half of China's broiler production, have been heavily dependent on imports for a long time. Before 2014, most of them came from the US. After the outbreak of avian influenza in the US in 2014, China adjusted its customs import policy and imported from UK, France, Spain, Poland and New Zealand. In Feb 2021, a group of ancestral chickens in NZ were found to have diseases and other problems. China suspended imports from NZ and restarted imports from the US in Sept.

 

Although the source of imports will change, more than 90% of the world's white feather broilers have been monopolized by the US Cobb and Germany Aviagen for generations, and the rest of the shares come from European and American countries. As the provenance is heavily dependent on imports, 1.2461 million sets of Chinese ancestral white feather broilers will be introduced in 2021, a new high in recent 8 years.

 

The current wave of avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the US will have an impact on the import of white feather broilers. Prior to this, China domestic poultry organizations have discussed with the GACC and proposed to stop importing ancestral white feather broilers from the US as soon as possible.

 

Since 2020, the white feather broiler industry has been in a loss for a long time. Only in Q2 of this year did the profit turn positive, and the introduction quantity of breding chicken decreased. At present, the production capacity is tight. If the introduction is limited later, it will take a longer time to restore the production capacity, which is easy to push up the China domestic broiler price.

 

It is worth noting that at the end of 2021, three independently bred white feather broiler new breeds, "Shengze 901 (圣泽901)", "Guangming No. 2 (广明2号)" and "Ward 188 (沃德188)", have passed the national examination and approval, ending the passive situation that China’s white feather broiler breeds all rely on imports. This will play a positive role in ensuring the supply of provenance. According to the National Livestock and Poultry Genetic Resources Commission, the performance of these three new varieties is on a par with the international advanced level, each has its own advantages, some indicators are better, the comprehensive benefit index reaches or exceeds the international level, and the product characteristics are more consistent with Chinese consumption habits.

 

According to statistics, enterprises holding these three new varieties will expand production in the last 2-3 years, providing no less than 800,000 sets of ancestral white feather broilers. If it can meet the expectation, with reference to the renewal scale of 1.25 million sets of Chinese ancestral white feather broilers in 2021, the domestic varieties will be able to cover about 60% of the ancestral white feather broiler market.