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11

2022

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10

Analysis of White Feather Broiler Market in Sept and Forecast in Oct

Source:

OIG+X

At present, the sales progress of chicken products is slowing down, the price of chicken products is falling, and the slaughterhouse intends to actively ship at a high price. Due to the weakness of terminal consumption, dealers are more cautious in purchasing and replenishing, and it is difficult to decline the storage position of chicken frozen products. The price of chicken products in Oct may be weak, and may rebound in Nov. It is estimated that the comprehensive price of chicken will fluctuate and adjust around 10,200-11,000 yuan/ton.

1. Analysis of average selling price of young chicks in main production areas
In Sept, the average selling price of young chicks in the main production areas was 2.92 yuan, up 0.2 yuan YoY, or 20.24%, and increased by 0.25 yuan MoM, or 8.71%; in August, the average price of young chicks fluctuated between 2.0-3.1 yuan; the price of live chicken was relatively high and stable, which supported the price of young chicks to rise. In addition, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the breeding was improved. In Sept, the price of young chicks rose again. The selling price exceeded the cost. The average price of young chicks rose to about 3.25 yuan, and the price of high quality young chicks exceeded 3.5 yuan.

 

2. Analysis of the average selling price of national live chicken
In Sept, the average selling price of domestic chicken was 9.07 yuan/kg, up 1.77 yuan/kg or 27.15% YoY; the MoM drop was 0.11 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 1.37%; compared with Aug, the sales volume in Sept increased slightly, the sales volume of live chicken increased by about 1% MoM and decreased by 3% YoY. Due to the continuous increase in the supply of chicken, and the price of chicken products in the slaughterhouse industry fell, the price of chicken dropped to a high level. At the end of Sept, the price of chicken fell to 8.6 yuan/kg, which is below the cost line.
 

3. Analysis of average selling price of chicken meat in China
The average chicken price in Sept was 10.97 yuan/kg, up 1.12 yuan/kg YoY, decrease 0.12 yuan/kg MoM, and the monthly average price of the main product, the frozen chest, was 10.07 yuan/kg, with a YoY increase of 5.33% and a MoM decrease of 4%; the monthly average selling price of large-sized thigh is 11.96 yuan/kg, up 19% YoY and 10% MoM; the average monthly price of big mid-joint wings is about 37.2 yuan/kg, up 15.53% YoY and down 3.2% MoM; In Sept, the stock Mid Autumn Festival was lower than expected. The dealers were cautious in taking the products. Slaughtering houses could negotiate a deal. The price of chicken products fell sharply. The comprehensive selling price of chicken fell below 11,000 yuan/ton, and the storage capacity rate of chicken frozen products rose to 80%.

 

4. Future Outlook
a. Breeding eggs and young chicks:
The stock of breeding chickens will decline slightly from Oct to Nov. According to the theoretical calculation, the supply of young chicks will decrease, the breeding cost will increase, the price of live chickens will decline, and the enthusiasm of breeders for picking up chicks will decrease. It is estimated that the number of young chicks will decline slightly in the fourth quarter. In Dec, the incubator avoided the Spring Festival slaughterhouse holiday and stopped hatching eggs; it is expected that the price of young chicks will fluctuate downward from Oct to Nov.

 

b. Live chicken
The enthusiasm for replenishing young chicks may be weakened, and the stocking and breeding remain stable. According to the data, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the sales of live chicken will decline slightly, but due to the uncertainty of the epidemic, the demand for chicken products such as catering and food processing is weak, chicken dealers have insufficient confidence in terminal consumption, are cautious in purchasing and replenishing, and the slaughterhouse has a high warehouse of frozen products at the end of Sept, the difficulty of sales increases; it is expected that from Oct to Nov, the price of live chicken will fall first and then rise, and the price of live chicken will be around the cost line. It is expected that the price of live chicken will fluctuate and adjust at 8.5-9 yuan/kg, which may lead to losses in individual periods of time.

 

c. Chicken products
At present, the sales progress of chicken products is slowing down, the price of chicken products is falling, and the slaughterhouse intends to actively ship at a high price. Due to the weakness of terminal consumption, dealers are more cautious in purchasing and replenishing, and it is difficult to decline the storage position of chicken frozen products. The price of chicken products in Oct may be weak, and may rebound in Nov. It is estimated that the comprehensive price of chicken will fluctuate and adjust around 10,200-11,000 yuan/ton.