Knowledge

To provide the latest market news and hold online & offline events to assist you being well-informed and making decisions.

04

2022

-

10

China Pig Cycle Starts Again, Where Will the Price Go in Q4?

Source:

OIG+X

In Sept, the central and local governments put in about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves in total. The quantity put in in a single month reached the highest level in history, and the price put in was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the smooth operation of the supply and price of live pig pork market. 

In Sept, the central and local governments put in about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves in total. The quantity put in in a single month reached the highest level in history, and the price put in was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the smooth operation of the supply and price of live pig pork market. By the end of the third quarter, the market price of DYL pigs had risen to 24.22 yuan/kg, up 17.4% from the end of Jun.

 

The next Q4 is the traditional pig consumption peak season. Will pork prices rise significantly under the support of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival? Where is the high point?

 

-Pig supply remains the focus in the fourth quarter

From the operating rate of slaughter enterprises in the past five years, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises has increased significantly since Oct, and the monthly average operating rate in the fourth quarter is 4.22% higher than that in the third quarter. Obviously, the demand will rise further, and from the perspective of secondary fattening, the supply will also rise further. According to the survey data of Zhuochuang Information, from Aug to Sept, the secondary fattening amount in Shandong, Henan and other northern regions accounted for 25% to 30% of the sales volume, while Hunan, Jiangxi and Hubei accounted for 28% to 30%.

 

After the National Day holiday effect, consumption will turn into a weak trend and secondary fattening has gradually entered the market. From the middle of Oct to the end of Nov, the spot price of live pigs may fall back at a high level, but there is limited room for falling back; after entering the Spring Festival and New Year's Day, the pig price may once again enter the seasonal upward channel, with the supply and demand situation both increase. Due to the weak overall consumption capacity, the price in the peak season does not have the basis for a substantial increase. It is estimated that the pig price in the fourth quarter may still be at a seasonal high, but the overall increase may be lower than the market expectation.