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28

2022

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08

In Sept, the average price of live pigs in China is expected to gradually enter the range of 22-23 yuan/kg

Source:

After the second half of Aug, the live pig market gradually strengthened, and the deadlock of continuous shock in the previous period has been broken recently. As the weather turns cool, students return to school and the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, downstream demand began to boom and the popularity of the pig market begins to rise.

 

After the second half of Aug, the live pig market gradually strengthened, and the deadlock of continuous shock in the previous period has been broken recently. As the weather turns cool, students return to school and the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, downstream demand began to boom and the popularity of the pig market begins to rise.

 

Due to the impact of last year's capacity reduction, the pressure on basic sales in the next 3-4 months is still small, and the demand in the fourth quarter is good. Nov and Dec is the peak season of Southern curing, and the consumption of large pigs has reached a peak. With the recovery of pig prices, some secondary fattening customers in the north have reappeared recently, which is the source of large pigs in the later period.

 

This year, the third round of secondary fattening is involved, forming a certain competitive relationship with local slaughtering enterprises, and further intensifying the tight supply of pigs, which will help the short-term pig price rise. However, in the long term, there will be more large-weight pigs in the later period, and the supply tension of pigs will also be eased, which will be restrained by the high price of pigs in the later period.

 

The recent rise in pig prices is mainly driven by the sentiment brought by the restoration of confidence at the breeding end. Unlike the previous volatile market, the recent rise in pig prices is expected to continue. The recovery of downstream demand before the end of the month is limited, and the pig prices may be slightly adjusted.

 

Under the influence of the current weather, epidemic and other comprehensive factors, terminal consumption is still in a weak trend. The orders of downstream slaughtering enterprises are insufficient. The average operating rate of downstream slaughtering enterprises in Aug decreased slightly compared with that in Jul. With the cooling weather, the opening of schools and the Mid Autumn Festival, the consumption of pig prices is expected to increase in September, but there is little room for improvement.

 

The orders of slaughtering enterprises are expected to increase 3-5 days before the festival, and the consumption of large pigs in the South will pick up, which will drive the price of standard pigs stronger. However, the market pressure and the release of the second fattening pig source as planned have restrained the price increase. The average price in Sept is expected to gradually enter the operating range of 22-23 yuan/kg.