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09

2023

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07

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032-Part II

Source:

FAO

Global meat exports are projected to rise 3% by 2032 from the base period,reaching 42 Mt cwe with almost 11% of meat output traded still the growth in the meat trade is projected to decelerate compared to the past decade Developed countries are still expected to account for more than half (55%) of global meat exports by 2032, a share which is 3% point Iower than in the base period.


 

1. Trade

Concentration of meat exports will decrease

Global meat exports are projected to rise 3% by 2032 from the base period,reaching 42 Mt cwe with almost 11% of meat output traded still the growth in the meat trade is projected to decelerate compared to the past decade Developed countries are still expected to account for more than half (55%) of global meat exports by 2032, a share which is 3% point Iower than in the base period. However, the share of Brazil and the United States each representing 20% will remain stable over the projection period.

 

Australia and Turkiye are expected to record the most significant increase in world meat exports globally benefiting from a favourable exchange rate and ample feed grain availability. Other traditional exporting countries such as Argentina Paraguay and Thailand are also expected to contribute to the increase in the global meat trade. On the other hand, the European Union export share will decline from 18%in the base year to 15% in 2032.

 

The most significant growth in import demand originates from Africa, which wiIl account for the 78% of additional imports of all meat types Asia excluding China, is another fast-growing meat importing region. While Chinese meat imports remain high in the early part of the projection period, a gradual decline is projected as pigmeat production recovers from the ASF outbreak. In terms of composition, poultry will account for two third of the additional meat imports, bringing its share of total meat imports to 40%by 2032.

 

Australia and New Zealand will continue to lead global sheepmeat markets. Australia is expected to increase lamb exports (of higher value) to high end restaurants at the expense of mutton while in New Zealand exports will slowly decline as land use shifts from sheep farming. The source of higher import demand is the rising middle-class consumer in the Middle East.

 

2. Prices

China is a key factor affecting meat prices

The Outlook projects that although meat prices are currently high, they are expected to decrease in both nominal and real terms at the start of the outlook period under weaker demand and higher supplies as the impact of disease outbreaks wanes, particularly in China. The evolution of the situation in China impacts the world reference price of pigmeat and, to a lesser extent,that of other meats. In fact, at the start of the outlook period, the faster China recovers from ASF and Iowers its meat imports, the Iower prices will be in subsequent years.

 

As markets recover from these disruptions and consumer spending on meat in middle-income countries resumes, particularly for poultry and pigmeat, prices are expected to return to their long-term trend decline in real terms. AS a result, by 2032, meat prices in real terms are projected to be 10%to 15% lower than their 2020-2022 averages. Moreover,red meat prices will be increasingly higher than pigmeat and poultry due to more limited productivity gains