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09

2023

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07

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032-Part I

Source:

FAO

Global herd and flock expansion, combined with continuous improvements in animal breeding, management, infrastructures and technology will increase production over the outlook period,particularly in upper middle-income countries (+14%).



-Growth in meat supply will expand to meet modestly rising demand

Global herd and flock expansion, combined with continuous improvements in animal breeding, management, infrastructures and technology will increase production over the outlook period,particularly in upper middle-income countries (+14%).These countries will drive the growth in global meat production to reach 382 Mt (+12%) by 2032. Nevertheless, high inflation and rising costs early in the projection period will limit the medium-term growth per annum (p.a.) to a slower pace (1% p.a.) than in the last decade (1.2% p.a.).

Global meat production will be mainly driven by growth in poultry meat and a significant increase in pig meat production assuming on going recovery from the major outbreaks of ASF in Asia in the first years in the coming decade. The recovery in pigmeat production in the Philippines and Thailand is assumed to be completed by 2026. The various outbreaks have highlighted the need to implement a comprehensive policy approach that combines biosecurity measures, surveillance, compensation import/export regulations, and the development of a vaccination programme to successfully control and recover from ASF.

 

-Lower growth in trade as domestic supplies rise in importing countries

The main features of the global meat trade will be the ongoing reduction in China's meat imports, which is expected to be offset by a growing demand from middle-income countries in Asia that shift toward diets that include higher shares of animal products and from Iow-income countries with high population growth.On the other hand, rising domestic production in several other countries including Iran, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia South Africa, Vietnam,and in particular countries in Latin America, is likely to dampen the growth of their meat imports in the medium term. As a result the global meat trade will expand by only 0.7% p.a., much slower than in the last decade.