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01

2023

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07

The Chinese Live Pigs Price Has Fallen Into the Era of 12 Yuan/kg

Source:

OIG+X

According to data from Shanghai Mysteel, as of Jun 30th, the national average price of live DLY pigs was 13.82 yuan/kg.


According to data from Shanghai Mysteel, as of Jun 30th, the national average price of live DLY pigs was 13.82 yuan/kg. The reasons for this price decline are as follows: 1. Schools are on summer vacation, reducing group meal consumption; 2. Slaughtering houses have low intentions of stockpiling, reducing slaughter volume and increasing sales of  fresh pork; 3. Some areas in Sichuan have outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), leading to an increase in market supply; 4. Industry participants are pessimistic, with high enthusiasm for selling pigs, resulting in a vicious cycle of pig prices.

 

The slaughter volume in Jun has significantly declined, while the pig source supply has fluctuated slightly. Employees of companies are generally reduced or on rotation, making it unlikely for slaughter volume to have significant fluctuations in Jul. The main reasons are as follows: 1. Difficulties in selling fresh pork at the terminal consumption market and low purchasing enthusiasm; 2. Slaughterhouses have weak intentions of stockpiling, and currently frozen products are waiting to be sold, which has a large impact on the capital chain. Companies have been increasing the rate of fresh pork sales and reducing the proportion of stockpiling frozen pork, thus reducing the slaughter volume.

 

In recent years, China's pork consumption has remained stable at about 55 million tons. Based on the current production level, the normal level of national inventory of breeding sows can be estimated to be about 41 million. According to monitoring data, at the end of May, the national inventory of breeding sows was 42.58 million, which is 103.9% of the normal stock level of 41 million, still above the reasonable zone for pig production capacity regulation.