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18

2023

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04

China Produced Nearly 200 Million Pigs in Q1

Source:

OIG+X

At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office today, it was announced that China’s agricultural production is stable and animal husbandry grows steadily in Q1, with 198.99 million pigs being slaughtered.

At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office today, it was announced that China’s agricultural production is stable and animal husbandry grows steadily in Q1, with 198.99 million pigs being slaughtered.

 

The production of China’s pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat in Q1 reached 24.56 million tons in total, up 2.5% year-on-year, increasing by 1.9%, 5.1%, 5.0%, and 3.2% respectively.

 

At the end of Q1, the inventory of domestic market remained 430.94 million live pigs, increasing by 2.0% YoY.

 

In the early part of Q2, the breeding industry is still in a state of loss. It’s mainly due to relatively abundant supply. According to the data of breeding sow inventory from 10 months ago or mating rate of breeding sows and piglet birth volumes at the end of 2022, it can be concluded that domestic pig supply will continue to increase in April.

 

On the other hand, demand is still weak, with no obvious signs of recovery in consumption by residents and catering services. Coupled with relatively pessimistic market expectations and sentiment, pig prices continue to decrease. Raw material costs have fallen somewhat, yet with limited decline. In addition, in March, ASF outbreak nationwide caused significant sudden losses to breeding farms, causing severe operational setbacks and losses.

 

According to Mysteel, actual output from breeding enterprises was 9.9154 million heads in March, with a planned completion rate of 101.75%. Output for April is planned 9.8845 million heads, droping 0.31% compared to actual output in March, but with one less day in April than in March. The daily output is up by about 3% from the previous month. At the same time, private farmers are actively selling pigs, with strong pricing sentiment, and secondary fattening farmers have also started selling pigs, resulting in domestic oversupply.

 

From the demand side, fresh selling volumes from slaughterhouses may decline as the weather warms up, and the operating rate may remain at the level at the end of March, with no obvious boost. Besides, affected by capital flow, the overall inventory of slaughterhouses is limited. The average pig price in April may be lower than 15.23 yuan/kg (US$2.29/kg) in March. If more large pigs are slaughtered in April, the pressure on pig selling side in May and June may decrease, and the pig price may have a limited rise, to around 16 yuan/kg (US$2.40/kg).