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11

2023

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04

The Current Impact of ASF on Chinese Market

Source:

OIG+X

Xu Qing, the chief analyst of Southwest Securities, said that the ASF in China (African swine fever) was not so serious relative to 2018-2019. But compared to previous small fluctuations two years ago, there have been small-scale regional outbreaks recently, especially since January.

Xu Qing, the chief analyst of Southwest Securities, said that the ASF in China (African swine fever) was not so serious relative to 2018-2019. But compared to previous small fluctuations two years ago, there have been small-scale regional outbreaks recently, especially since January.

 

"Infections have slowed down slightly in recent 2 weeks and the peak period might be over. According to information, the strains in the north are more complex this time, including mild strains, virulent strain and vaccine virus, etc., which created challenges for farm vaccination."

 

"It is understood that generally there are two options for infected farms, one is to replenish quickly, and another is to clear the field. The epidemic is being transmitted from the north to the south because of the rainy season, The southern side has also begun sweeping from the beginning of the sporadic outbreak to localized centralized outbreak." Xu Qing said.

 

Xu Qing said the epidemic is expected to be in an expanded state in the south before the end of the rainy season in May. But it is impossible to accurately predict the final level of outbreaks. As of now, scaled farms will suffer more damage, as the focus is mainly on cutting overcapacity this time. Once the sow farms are damaged, they basically choose to clear the farms and are less likely to take the risk to replenish.”

 

Xu Qing believes that most of the breeding enterprises’ cash flow and costs are getting worse after African swine fever, whether they choose to replenish or clear farms. After these culled pigs turned into pork and supply the market, the price of pigs will go downward.

 

For the hog market, Yang Guang said, the market of June and July is expected to perform better, it may show an upward trend at the end of May if going well. "The market of second half should be more bullish."