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10

2023

-

04

Hog Market of Domestic

Source:

OIG+X




Hog market: Currently the supply of pig market exceeds the demand. After 50-60 days of the Spring Festival, consumption is still in a weaker period with low slaugthering volumes. Supply remains abundant and price comes under pressure during this phase. From the supply side, scaled-farms' slaughter volumes in Jan-Feb still increased by 24.76% according to their own statistics, and the social side has an increase of about 10%. In terms of demand, the recent consumption  is better than the previous period and the slaughter volume has increased because of replenishment for the Qingming Festival and a short boost in consumption at the weekend. Consumption is expected to improve compared to last year without the impact of covid-19, yet the improvement is relatively limited for now.

The current price is still volatileat the bottom. Now China’s hog market still faces price reduction to cut overpacity. In April, price is expected to fluctuate between 6.5-7.5 yuan/kg which may cause passive slaughter, for example, farmers may experience higher feed cost pressures, and they may choose to sell pigs for slaughtering if bullish expectations are not met. At present, retailers are more inclined to sell pigs making prices still weak in April.

Market outlook: The price is likely to rebound only if reduce overcapacity appropriately. So the time of price rise is still uncertain depending on the market selling rhythm and the funding situation of enterprises. However, the rebound is unlikely to appear at the end of April, it is possible that prices show the bottom inJuly, then rebound after the fell until August, and will perform better in September and October. The price of the end of the year are uncertain which depends on the ASF impact in South China in May-June and the market reaction.