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09

2023

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04

Poultry Quarterly Q2 2023

Source:

rabobank

We expect global trade to stay strong this year. Major importing countries and regions like Europe, Japan, China, Singapore, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States are operating under relatively tight conditions, due partly to supply challenges and partly to AI. Import volumes will likely rise, and prices will be affected by availability in Brazil and the US, which looks relatively abundant for this year.


Although prices have been somewhat under pressure in Q1 2023, we are still optimistic about the outlook for global poultry markets. At a time when eggs are reaching record-high prices globally and competing proteins like beef and pork are expected to remain expensive in most markets, demand for poultry meat, the cheapest animal protein, remains strong. Having said this, ongoing high prices at a time of weaker economic conditions are leading to some demand erosion in markets with sizable populations of low-income consumers. This is happening in Africa and Asia in particular, where consumers are returning to cheaper, traditional plant-based protein sources.

We expect global trade to stay strong this year. Major importing countries and regions like Europe, Japan, China, Singapore, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States are operating under relatively tight conditions, due partly to supply challenges and partly to AI. Import volumes will likely rise, and prices will be affected by availability in Brazil and the US, which looks relatively abundant for this year.

The development of avian influenza will be a the big wild card for trade and poses an ongoing global threat. Some countries have already adopted vaccination programs, while others are mulling it over. AI has continued to spread further into Latin America, getting closer to Brazil’s southern production states, which cover more than 60% of the country’s production. If AI hits some of these states, the potential impact on global trade could be big. Major importing countries may choose to change their sourcing, benefiting alternative exporters like the US,  the EU, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, and China. This would result in higher prices, and for some submarkets, like breast and whole birds, there would be insufficient supply, which could have an additional bullish impact on prices.