Knowledge

To provide the latest market news and hold online & offline events to assist you being well-informed and making decisions.

28

2022

-

08

The Probability of Pig Price Rising Before the Mid Autumn Festival Is Small

Source:

According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang, in the 15 days before the Mid Autumn Festival in the past five years, the probability of the increase of the pig price only accounted for 20%.

According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang, in the 15 days before the Mid Autumn Festival in the past five years, the probability of the increase of the pig price only accounted for 20%. Although the increase of the downstream stock volume can provide certain support for the pig price to a certain extent under the influence of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the downstream stock is mainly concentrated in the 1-2 days before the festival, which is relatively short and has a very limited impact on the price. In addition, the proportion of retail investors in the pig breeding industry in the early stage was high. Most farmers thought that the Mid Autumn Festival was the peak season of the market, so they chose to increase the number of live pigs before the Mid Autumn Festival. Led by the pressure brought by the increase in the supply of live pigs, the prices of pigs in the 15 days before the Mid Autumn Festival in the past five years tended to fall. The average price of live pigs on the first day before the Mid Autumn Festival in 2017-2021 was 20.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.61% compared with the 15 days before the festival.

 

In the first quarter of 2019, ASF severely damaged the domestic pig production capacity. In the third quarter, the number of live pigs decreased significantly, leading to the rise of the price of live pigs under the influence of the cycle, which has limited relationship with the boosting effect of the Mid Autumn Festival. Therefore, from the perspective of the support of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the probability of the rise of pig prices before the festival is small.