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11

2023

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03

Rabobank: Australia & New Zealand Agribusiness March 2023

Source:

Rabobank

Australian Beef: Production is on the rise in 2023, as increased cattle inventory becomes productive. Consumer markets will be softer amid slower economic conditions and prices, while remaining historically high, we expect prices to retreat from their record levels and stabilise.

 

Australia: Rain Check and Rate Hikes

- Beef: Production is on the rise in 2023, as increased cattle inventory becomes productive. Consumer markets will be softer amid slower economic conditions and prices, while remaining historically high, we expect prices to retreat from their record levels and stabilise.

 

- Sheepmeat: We expect lamb production to push further into record territory. Softer consumer demand is likely to impact lamb more as a premium-positioned product, but new trade agreements and recovery in China provide possible upside.

 

- Consumer Foods: The latest results from the retailers showed food inflation gathered momentum in Q4 2022. Product availability is still an issue flagged by the retailers, as localised supply chain issues linger. Consumers continue to respond to cost-of-living pressures, and confidence is weak.

 

New Zealand: Beyond the Floods

- Beef: The North Island bull price will remain stable at current pricing levels in March.

 

- Sheepmeat: There are further potential downside risks for the lamb schedule in March, but reasons to be optimistic in the coming months.

 

- Consumer Foods: Consumer confidence is starting the year on a weak footing. While 2023 will see peak inflation, a real wage squeeze will see ongoing consumer behaviour shift toward trading down on food purchases and reduced non-food discretionary spending.