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14

2023

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01

The Beef Export of the MERCOSUR Will Stop Growing in 2023

Source:

Heyibeef

According to the forecast, the beef export of MERCOSUR will contract moderately this year, and the carcass weight is expected to fluctuate around 4.68 million tons, about 60,000 tons lower than that in 2022.

 

According to the forecast, the beef export of MERCOSUR will contract moderately this year, and the carcass weight is expected to fluctuate around 4.68 million tons, about 60,000 tons lower than that in 2022.

 

It is expected that the beef production of MERCOSUR will increase by 1% this year, which is mainly driven by the liquidation stage of the Brazilian cattle cycle. But this growth will be more used for domestic consumption, and the domestic market will be more attractive due to the decline in the prices of live cattle and beef in the international market.

 

Although Brazil's output will increase by about 70,000 tons (+2%), its exports will still decline. On the contrary, slaughtering and production in Uruguay are expected to slow down this year.

 

China will continue to be the main destination of beef export of MERCOSUR, but the reduction of its demand will lead to a certain decline in the export volume. According to the forecast, it is estimated that this year, the volume of ERCOSUR transported to China will be about 2.41 million tons (carcass weight), which is about 220,000 tons (- 8%) less than that in 2022.

 

The Chinese market continued to strengthen before the Spring Festival

 

On the eve of the Spring Festival, China's import beef market became active, but at present, the offer of the MERCOSUR countries is insufficient, and the import transaction.

 

The volume has not fully recovered.

 

After the relaxation of epidemic prevention policy, the number of customers and sales of restaurants in major cities in China are increasing. In addition, compared with the low level, the current appreciation of the RMB is more than 7%, reducing the import cost.

 

A trader said that the large meat processing facilities in Brazil have reduced their slaughters to adapt to the decline in the demand of the Chinese market in the previous period. In addition, the supply in the farm has also been reduced accordingly. Some facilities have started to sell the offer of the March shipping date. Slaughtering volume in Uruguay have also decreased significantly in recent weeks.

 

Brazil's beef export volume in the first week of January remained stable, with the average slightly lower than that in December. According to SECEX data, a total of 40,796 tons of beef were exported in the first five working days of this year, with an average daily export volume of 8,159 tons. The average export price is $4,881/ton, compared with December the decline was 1.4%, significantly lower than that of November/December last year, and it is expected that it will soon get rid of the continuous downward trend.

 

In December, Brazil exported 98,866 tons of beef to China, an increase of about 5,000 tons from November. For the second consecutive month, Brazil exported less than 100,000 tons of beef to China, which was higher than this level from June to October. The average price of exports to China continued to decline to $4958/ton, down 7.2% month-on-month, 32% lower than the peak in June.