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18

2022

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12

Chinese Domestic Chicken Analysis in Nov

Source:

OIG+X

The supply of chicken has decreased since the middle and late Oct, but the market price also declined. The consumption of chicken has been strongly inhibited. The epidemic has been going on for three years now in China, but the recent wave of the epidemic has affected a wide range and has obviously inhibited chicken consumption

The supply of chicken has decreased since the middle and late Oct, but the market price also declined. The consumption of chicken has been strongly inhibited. The epidemic has been going on for three years now in China, but the recent wave of the epidemic has affected a wide range and has obviously inhibited chicken consumption.


The chicken price fluctuated several times this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of live pigs fluctuated and fell back. Due to the impact of the epidemic and weak terminal demand, dealers were not active in preparing products. They mainly cleared their own inventory. The inventory of slaughter manufacturers rose and the price of products fell. In the middle of the year, the prices of some products fell to a low level. In addition, the inventory of dealers also fell to a low level. The readiness for products improved. The sales volume of slaughter manufacturers increased, the inventory decreased, the sales pressure eased, and the product price rebounded. The epidemic situation in some provinces continued to spread in many places in the last ten days. The control measures in various regions were increasingly strict, and terminal demand was significantly restrained. In addition, the price of live pigs dropped sharply, which led to the dealers' lack of confidence in the future market, reduced their enthusiasm for preparing products, and the inventory of slaughter manufacturers rose again. The product price fell. By the end of the month, the average price of various products was about 2% higher than that in Oct and about 5% lower than the high value in Nov.


From the perspective of production turnover, the number of broilers sold before the Spring Festival showed a decreasing trend; From the perspective of consumption, the fourth quarter is the peak season for traditional catering consumption, but the flow of people affected by the epidemic has decreased, and universities and colleges may have holidays in advance, which has restrained chicken consumption; In terms of all production links, only slaughter is still losing money, while other links remain profitable. However, due to the rise of feed prices, the whole industrial chain has low income; from the perspective of market situation, the prices of pigs and ducks are falling, which is unfavorable for the increase of chicken consumption; from the perspective of industry feedback, producers' expectations for the future market have been enhanced. Although chicken prices are still difficult to rise, the enthusiasm for breeding herd has been significantly improved.

 

To sum up, the future situation is "supply and demand both decline". The epidemic situation in the next 1-2 months is the main factor affecting the market price. If the epidemic situation improves, the price will rise. The annual output decreased by about 9% YoY. In the second half of the year, the industry turned from loss to profit, and the annual profit level was low.