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China’s White Feather Broiler Market Review in H1 2022 and Outlook for H2


Import Analysis of White Feather Broiler;Import Trend Outlook;Domestic Market Price Outlook in H2 2022

--Import Analysis of White Feather Broiler


From Jan to May 2022, China imported 551,700 tons of chicken products nationwide, with a YoY decrease of 6.79%. The total import volume from Jan to May 2017-2021 was 174,900 tons, 197,000 tons, 277,200 tons, 521,800 tons, and 591,900 tons respectively.


This year, the total import volume from Jan to May firstly shows a declined trend.  Since the outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in the United States in Mar, South Korea, Mexico, Singapore and other countries have taken some restrictions on chicken imports. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 epidemic has interfered with the cold chain imported products. Against the background of overcapacity of domestic white feather broilers, China's chicken products have a slight YoY decline in imports.


Among the products, frozen chicken feet from Jan to May 2022 were imported 266,600 tons, accounting for 48.32% of the total import.


Since the epidemic, catering consumption has been increasing in the past two years. Its revenue in H2 was significantly higher than that in H1. The monthly and quarterly highest values of catering revenue both appeared in Q4.


As the new prevention and control policies are implemented in China, the population mobility and economic recovery will be further stimulated, improving the catering industry and poultry meat consumption.


--Import Trend Outlook:


At present, avian influenza still ongoing influences international broiler market, and the epidemic prevention and control are still grim in the domestic imported cold chain food sector. China’s breeding technology also boosts the anti-monopoly development of broiler industry. Thus its imported volume may continue to decrease in the H2.


--Domestic Market Price Outlook in H2 2022:


Overall, feather chickens for sale will be less affected by the previous COVID-19 epidemic, and the output tends to be normal.


The chicken price is estimated to show a downward trend in the second half of July with the traditionally weak consumption season, the limited driving effect of the surging live pigs’ prices, and unexpected high chicken prices in June.


In August, its price is expected to be stable and weak in stages. In September, with the support of group meal consumption during the school season, the price of feather chicken may break through the high point of H1 this year.


Supply and demand may be stable in Q4, in which price will be overall on the high side and fluctuate. The upward feed price leads to the increasing breeding cost. Moreover, the consumption is expected to be improved in H2 2022, thus the price of chicken may fluctuate upward.