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2022

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The World's Total Poultry Meat Exports in 2022

Source:

FAO

The world's total poultry meat exports in 2022 are forecast to expand by 2.8 percent at 16.2 million tonnes, compared to 2021, driven by expected higher imports by the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and Iraq, partially offset by declines mainly concentrated in China and Saudi Arabia. Poultry purchases by the United Kingdom and the European Union are likely to reach the pre-Brexit trade level, boosted by food service recovery and limited production growth due to HPAI outbreaks. Strong domestic demand is driving an increase in poultry meat purchases in the United Arab Emirates, absorbing around 10 percent of the total poultry meat exports of Brazil. Iraq is anticipated to increase purchases year-on-year, mainly sourced from Türkiye and Brazil.

The world's total poultry meat exports in 2022 are forecast to expand by 2.8 percent at 16.2 million tonnes, compared to 2021, driven by expected higher imports by the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and Iraq, partially offset by declines mainly concentrated in China and Saudi Arabia. Poultry purchases by the United Kingdom and the European Union are likely to reach the pre-Brexit trade level, boosted by food service recovery and limited production growth due to HPAI outbreaks. Strong domestic demand is driving an increase in poultry meat purchases in the United Arab Emirates, absorbing around 10 percent of the total poultry meat exports of Brazil. Iraq is anticipated to increase purchases year-on-year, mainly sourced from Türkiye and Brazil.

 

By contrast, a fall in imports is foreseen in China due to lower domestic demand and in Saudi Arabia, driven by the continued expansion of national poultry meat production benefitting from investments and government support to increase the country's food security and import bans imposed in recent months. Although they remained the two primary suppliers, purchases from Brazil and Ukraine have seen a more than 25 percent decrease year-to-date up to August compared to the same period last year, only partially offset by increased purchases from the Russian Federation and Argentina.

 

Regarding exports, the most significant volume expansions in 2022 are expected for Brazil, China and Türkiye. Brazil is anticipated to boost deliveries and approach a 30  percent share of global poultry meat exports, benefitting from tight supplies in the United States and the European Union, the absence of Ukraine from key markets at the beginning of the war, and the strength of the United States Dollar, which favoured Brazilian exporters. The outlook for the Brazilian poultry sector for 2022 is characterised by reduced dependence on China as the primary destination but replaced by increased exports to the United Arab Emirates, Japan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Singapore. In addition, a surge in deliveries to South Africa is anticipated reflecting a 12-months suspension of antidumping duties in August 2022. Despite a likely fall in production, China’s poultry meat exports are forecast to increase by as much as 22 percent, reflecting a possible shift to pig meat consumption amid rising availability of locally-produced pig meat and COVID-19-related lockdowns. Similarly, Türkiye is expected to increase sales by around 15 percent, stemming from abundant supplies. Poultry meat exports from Türkiye surged by around 20 percent in the first nine months of 2022 compared to last year, with more than 50 percent destined for Iraq.

 

By contrast, the United States and the European Union could see a decline in exports on the back of tight supplies and trade restrictions due to widespread HPAI outbreaks in 2022. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s poultry exports are likely to decline by around 8 percent this year, mostly on disruptions caused by the war that began last February. The current forecast is far more favourable than the prospects at the onset of the war, as Ukraine has been developing alternative routes to resume exports and benefitted from the elimination of trade barriers by the European Union, as announced on 4 July 2022. Reflecting this, deliveries to the European Union (especially the Netherlands and Slovakia), the United Arab Emirates and, recently, to Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, although still less compared to last year.