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Chinese Domestic Live Pig Review in Jul


The average domestic #live #pig price in Jul showed a trend of first rising and then falling.



The average domestic live pig price in Jul showed a trend of first rising and then falling. This month, the average price of live pig (DLY) transactions in the country was 22.09 yuan/kg, a MoM increase of 29.72% and a YoY increase of 40.68%.
[Supply] According to the monitoring of Zhuochuang in June, the number of live pigs in 166 sample breeding enterprises across the country was 35.4513 million, an increase of 1.95% MoM and a YoY increase of 32.09%. The number of breeding sows in stock was 5.2759 million, a MoM increase of 3.03% and a YoY decrease of 8.36%.
[Demand] In Jul, the operating rate of key slaughterhouses across the country showed a downward trend. The average operating rate of key enterprises this month was 23.96%, down 6.16 percentage points MoM and up 1.99 percentage points YoY.
[Inventory] As of the end of Jul, the average frozen product storage capacity rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 25.34%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the end of the previous month and a decrease of 5.34 percentage points from the same period last year.
[Market forecast] From Jun to Jul, farmers are reluctant to sell, so it’s predicted that the slaughter plan of pigs in Aug may be increased. In addition, affected by the increasing difficulty of market price rise, the wait-and-see of breeding units may be reduced in succession, and the pig supply may rise MoM in Aug. On the demand side, there is no relatively strong factor to stimulate consumption in the market in Aug, and only some regions may have short-term incremental performance on the Chinese Festivals, which has little impact on the overall market.
It is expected that the demand for live pigs in Aug may still run at a low level. Although affected by factors such as the decline of meat prices MoM, the demand may recover in succession, but the range may be limited, which has a weak upward effect on the market. Generally speaking, in Aug, the growth rate of the pig market or supply was greater than that of demand, the rise of pig prices was weak, and the overall MoM decline.