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06

2022

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12

What Will the Pig Price Be Next Year

Source:

OIG+X

In 2023, people are optimistic about the Chinese live pig price. The pig price in H1 is better than that in H2 of next year. The main reason is that all regions encourage the rural areas to vigorously develop pig breeding, so that the rural pig breeders gradually increase, the number of pigs on hand is greatly increased, and the pig production capacity is gradually restored; next year is in the middle and late stages of the pig cycle, the overall situation of the pig market will not change, and the pig price is still in the general trend of rising.

In 2023, people are optimistic about the Chinese live pig price. The pig price in H1 is better than that in H2 of next year. The main reason is that all regions encourage the rural areas to vigorously develop pig breeding, so that the rural pig breeders gradually increase, the number of pigs on hand is greatly increased, and the pig production capacity is gradually restored; next year is in the middle and late stages of the pig cycle, the overall situation of the pig market will not change, and the pig price is still in the general trend of rising.

 

According to the overall market situation, it is more likely that the pig price will remain high and volatile in the first half of 2023. The second half of 2023 is likely to be the beginning of a downward turning point. It is estimated that the pig price may fall back to about 10 yuan/kg before the end of 2023.


Reasons:

1. The pig production capacity is likely to recover. Recently, various national departments and local governments in China have issued policies to solve the problem of pig breeding. At the same time, under the recent high pig price, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the inventory and expand breeding will be further improved. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that by June next year, there will be a greater possibility of positive growth in pig production capacity and gradual decline in pig prices.

 

2. The supply of other livestock and poultry products will also be relatively sufficient. Since March this year, the prices of pigs and pork have continued to rise significantly, driving the prices of domestic beef, mutton, chicken, eggs to rise by 14.7-24.6%, which will also stimulate the production of other livestock and poultry, whose supply will also increase after Spring Festival, dragging pork prices down as substitutes.

 

3. The strength of national macro-control will continue. Even if the price of live pigs drops to around 10 yuan, the price is still high. In H1 2023, when the supply of pork is still tight, the quantity of imported pork will increase, and the state reserves of frozen pork will continue to be released in major festivals and consumption peaks. From now to the first half of next year, it is more likely that pork prices will remain high and volatile, so people will still adjust the consumption structure. The consumption of chicken, fish, beef and mutton will replace some pork consumption.

 

To sum up, in H1 2023, the price of live pigs fluctuated at a high level. In H2 of 2023, due to the resumption of breeding volume and the sufficient supply of other meat products, the decline of pig prices is highly probable.