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02

2022

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12

Prospect of Chinese Pig Market in 2023

Source:

OIG+X

From the perspective of supply, since May 2022, the number of breeding sows has turned from negative to positive, and continue to increase month on month. According to the pig growth cycle, it means that after March 2023, the number of pigs sold will continue to increase month on month. At the same time, combined with factors such as the recovery of sow breeding rate and the optimization of sow structure, it is expected that the turning point of industry supply growth will appear ahead of time.

From the perspective of supply, since May 2022, the number of breeding sows has turned from negative to positive, and continue to increase month on month. According to the pig growth cycle, it means that after March 2023, the number of pigs sold will continue to increase month on month. At the same time, combined with factors such as the recovery of sow breeding rate and the optimization of sow structure, it is expected that the turning point of industry supply growth will appear ahead of time.

 

In terms of demand, the current social catering consumption was continuously depressed due to the epidemic, while the poor profits at the slaughter end lead to the low enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises. However, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control, long-term consumption may gradually improve. It is expected that the demand in the first half of the year will still be weak, and the consumption in the second half of the year will show a seasonal growth trend driven by holiday demand.


On the whole, with the continuous recovery of pig production capacity, it is estimated that the "pig cycle" in 2023 may enter the downward trend. In the early stage of supply recovery in the first half of the year, the increasing range is limited, while the demand is in the slack season, and the pig price will smoothly transition to the downward phase; due to the acceleration of sow supplement brought by the high level of breeding profits in the fourth quarter of 2022, the number of live pigs sold will increase in the second half of 2023, while the demand side is in the seasonal consumption peak season, which can undertake part of the supply increase. Therefore, it is expected that the pig price in 2023 will mainly decline moderately.