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2022

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China mainland's Oct Imports of Breeding Chicken Drop by 46.5% YoY Fall Short of Demand

Source:

Modern Livestock Daily Telegraph

China imported 555,000 breeding chickens from Jan to Oct 2022, declining 46.5% YoY, due to a severe outbreak of bird flu abroad, according to the latest data released by the customs.

 

China imported 555,000 breeding chickens from Jan to Oct 2022, declining 46.5% YoY, due to a severe outbreak of bird flu abroad, according to the latest data released by the customs. It usually takes 14 months from the introduction of breeding chickens to the sales of chickens in the market. In other words, the reduction in the import from Jan this year will not be felt until March next year.

 

As a result, from Mar next year, especially the number of white-feather broilers, which rely mainly on imported breeders, and some yellow-feathered broilers will begin to drop significantly. Moreover, this downward trend will continue for at least the next 10 months (because imported breeding chickens have been declining for 10 months this year and counting). How long it will take depends on the avian flu situation abroad).

 

Insiders: white-feathered broilers may be in short supply at the end of 2023

Recently, the price of imported broilers and broiler seedlings has shown strong growth, with the price of imported white-feathered broiler seedlings rising 7.3% in early Nov. On Nov 20, Liu Gang of Bozhong Investment Dayang Financial Research Institute told reporters: "The current market concern is more about the future supply and demand imbalance caused by the reduction of the introduction of the white feather chicken. "In a normal cycle, we expect to see a significant shortfall by the end of 2023 or the first half of 2024."

 

According to its calculation, if the introduction of white feather chicken is smooth in Nov and Dec 2022, it is assumed that the annual amount of ancestral renewal will be around 850,000, including overseas introduction and domestic self-propagation. Without considering molting and mortality, it is estimated that about 5.525 billion commercial chickens will be bred in the future, which is still a large gap compared with the number of more than 6.5 billion white-feathered broiler chickens in 2021.

 

"From the perspective of upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain, we still pay attention to the investment opportunities in the progenitor chicken link. Historically, the price volatility of parent and commercial chicken is higher than that of chicken products. In addition, the downstream broiler products of the enterprise performance are robust. We will also pay attention to companies that have the ability to breed the progenitor of Shengze 901. "Liu Gang said.