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13

2022

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11

Slower Stock Growth of the Breeding Sows in Large-Scale Farms in Oct

Source:

OIG+X

It's estimated that fat pigs will have a tight supply and their price will be at a high shock level. If the consumption improves in winter, there will be more room for price surge. Overall, the pig husbandry will get considerable profits.

 

  1. Hog production performance and its trend

 

The stock of breeding sows in large-scale farms slowed down its growth in Oct, with a YoY decline yet a narrower one. The culling volume of sows shows a prominent surge. The stock of LY sows increases for six consecutive months, with an MoM rise of 0.7% but a YoY decline of 1.3%. The stock of gilts increases 1.7% MoM and 12.2% YoY. The culling volume of breeding sows increased 29.0% MoM, declining 61% YoY.

 

  1. Replenishment of breeding pigs

 

There’s slight growth in sales and prices of LY gilts, but the cumulative selling volume is much lower than that of same period last year. The selling of LY gilts in Oct increased 15.7% MoM and 15% YoY (Low base last year). The cumulative selling volume from Jan to Oct decreased 29%.

 

The price of LY gilts is 2,337 yuan/head with a MoM rise of 1.2% and YoY surge of 19%. There hasn’t show significant growth in sales of breeding pigs under the surge of pig price. On the one hand, some breeders believe the current production capacity is way far higher than the normal level, which may lead to future losses. On the other hand, the price of piglets is at a low level, affecting the replenishing of breeding sows.

 

  1. The pork supply and consumption

 

The monthly supply of pork decreased year-on-year nationwide, and the selling volume of fat pigs in large-scale monitored farms dropped 5.4% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month. The cumulative selling volume from Jan to Oct increased 24% YoY. The fixed-scale slaughtering volume of MARA in Sept was 21.09 million, down 2.7% MoM and 16% YoY, and up 18% year on year from Jan to Sept (the slaughter volume in October is to be continued).

 

  1. The future trend outlook

Overall, pig prices are at a high shock level yet within a reasonable range. The price of fat pigs punched down from Sept to mid-Oct because farmers were reluctant to sell and secondly fatten pigs, which exacerbates short-term supply shortages. The national daily price surged to 26 yuan/kg and rose to above 28 yuan/kg from week 1-4 in Oct. Then the price fell decreased from end-Oct to mid-Nov and adjusted to around 24 yuan/kg on Nov.11 with a drop of 15%. Pig prices will fall back as the late market gradually returned to normal.

 

It's estimated that fat pigs will have a tight supply and their price will be at a high shock level. If the consumption improves in winter, there will be more room for price surge. Overall, the pig husbandry will get considerable profits.