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09

2022

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11

China's Pig Prices to Drop as Farmers Increase Big Pigs Sales

Source:

OIG+X

It's estimated that China's pig prices will drop under the sufficient hog supply in Q4 as there are prominent increases in the big pigs and standard pigs sales since Nov.

 

It's estimated that China's pig prices will drop under the sufficient hog supply in Q4 as there are prominent increases in the big pigs and standard pigs sales since Nov.

 

From the perspective of hog supply, the number of China’s breeding sows will maintain 43 million heads in H2 2022. There have been 43.62 million breeding sows on end-Sept, showing a 2% growth compared with end-Q2 and a slight drop of 2.2% year-on-year. Also, the stock of newborn piglets and finishing pigs has risen for more than 5 months in a row. Recent days have seen the sales volume of piglet feed and finishing pig feed rose sharply year-on-year, and some large-scale feed enterprises face 20% more year-on-year increases in their feed sales, which indicates both the sufficient hog supply and big pig stock in the farm significantly higher than the same time last year.

 

From the perspective of pork supply, some big pigs in the stock will bring up the pork productivity by 10%. Those second-fattened pigs will be slaughtered and sold centrally, superimposed the seasonal selling increase for pigs. On the other hand, the rise in domestic pig price will lead more growth in the import market in Q4. The state may continue to carry out and expand the scale of releasing pork reserves. NDRC has released 6 batches of central reserves of frozen pork, totalling 127,100 tons.

 

Although the further pig price may decrease, it’s estimated that pig price will still at a historical-high level supported by peak consumption season. The further winter season, New Year's Day and the Spring Festival all enjoy more consumption for cooking cured and preserved pork. However, the short seasonal price rise in the future will see less possibility to find a higher price than the price in late Oct.